Understanding NOAA’s monthly and seasonal climate outlooks

Do you understand how to interpret NOAA’s monthly and seasonal climate outlooks? They are not based on the strength of the departure from normal conditions but describe the probability of the direction of the swing. This is commonly misunderstood by many people who try to use them. You can read a good explainer at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-noaas-monthly-and-seasonal-climate-outlooks.
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